Very much a novice at this but hoping to learn as I go along. Yes, December's blog figures do look good but they are still only for fun. The ones I definitively back are the NAP, NB and 3B.




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Last 150 Settled Tips

The latest 50 settled tips placed by Kirei

Just A Thought @ 8/1 (win)
NB • Newbury 15:30 • 17th Jan '18

Has hit the frame her last 3 starts over hurdles having won her first two starts in bumpers and then a 3rd in a listed race, not apparently progressing but this time has the services of super claimer James Bowen, who might just eke something else out of her. The race itself doesn't look any easier and Kupatana at the top of the market could be anything, but money back for a place at least surely.

10p rule 4
Just A Thought (place)
NB • Newbury 15:30 • 17th Jan '18
Indy Five @ 7/2 (win) BOG
NAP • Newbury 15:00 • 17th Jan '18

Back from a lengthy absence he scored second time out switched to fences, eased down but still winning by an impressive 12 lengths. That race probably wasn't of the same quality as that won by Kimberlite Candy on Boxing Day at Market Rasen, but his victory was only by a neck and Indy Five still gets a 4lb pull in the weights. Horatio Hornblower at a slightly bigger price a danger too.

Bowie @ 15/2 (win)
3B • Market Rasen 13:30 • 17th Jan '18
Bowie (place) BOG
3B • Market Rasen 13:30 • 17th Jan '18
Born To Size @ 6/1 (win) BOG
NB • Hereford 15:40 • 16th Jan '18

Not great over hurdles but everything seemed to come together last time out on chase debut with previous stable, the 2nd has won since (and I've tipped her, more to the point) and has been given what seems a lenient mark for this handicap debut. There are a few decent sorts in here so will likely take a new personal best but unexposed.

Admiral Blake @ 50/1 (win) BOG
3B • Hereford 14:00 • 16th Jan '18

Another of Gary Priestley's selections, very interesting that he's being sent over fences again at this late stage of his career. Will take quite something given the opposition but worth a small e/w certainly.

Admiral Blake (place) BOG
3B • Hereford 14:00 • 16th Jan '18
Paddling @ 6/1 (win) BOG
NB • Ayr 14:50 • 15th Jan '18

It's hard to oppose Paddling in this for how tight the betting currently looks, such was the ease of his win last time. He's up 12lb, and it's a concern that Micky Hammond's horses aren't always the most consistent but the yard remains in form.

£50.00 Letemgo @ 10/1 (win)
NB • Kelso 14:45 • 14th Jan '18

The Racing Post describes this as a dire affair and it's not far wrong. Dire affairs can though still be decent for betting opportunities when they include horses that seem to have lost their way but could be on the cusp of coming back into form. Letemgo has some of the better form amongst this motley crew, with a couple of placed efforts recently. His mark continues to slip and it hardly needs saying this won't take much winning.

£12.50 Letemgo (place)
NB • Kelso 14:45 • 14th Jan '18
Poker Party @ 11/2 (win) BOG
NAP • Fairyhouse 14:05 • 14th Jan '18
Blue Hussar @ 16/1 (win)
3B • Kelso 13:40 • 14th Jan '18
Blue Hussar (place)
3B • Kelso 13:40 • 14th Jan '18
One For Billy @ 9/1 (win)
3B • Kempton 15:45 • 13th Jan '18

This is a step up from the races he's been competing in prior to this, but with Charming Zen not having raced in a year and the previously well regarded Jenkins having come up short the last twice, albeit in highly competitive affairs, One for Billy's effective postage stamp weight in this thanks to Jonjo O'Neill Jnr's claim could conceivably give him the edge.

One For Billy (place)
3B • Kempton 15:45 • 13th Jan '18
£50.00 Black Ivory @ 5/1 (win)
NB • Warwick 14:25 • 13th Jan '18

As competitive as this is, it's hard to oppose Black Ivory such is the weight advantage he receives from his rivals. Up 6lb for his victory last time out, Jamie Hamilton's claim still sees him well in and his second the time before at Aintree suggests he should see out the extra furlong no problem. The Organist is undefeated as a stayer so looks the main danger, while Malapie at a bigger prize could easily fill out the places.

£27.50 Ms Parfois @ 11/4 (win)
NAP • Warwick 13:50 • 13th Jan '18

Most likely a toss up between Duel at Dawn and Ms Parfois, with the latter edging the vote. It was likely a hot Class 2 Duel at Dawn came in second in at Cheltenham last time out while Ms Parfois was racing against her own sex for her listed Class 1 win, so the slight weight advantage could well be the difference. Has won here before, too.

Dylanseoghan @ 9/2 (win)
NB • Huntingdon 14:30 • 12th Jan '18

Zoe Davison has provided me with some very good winners so far this season in The Game is a Foot and Frank N Fair, the latter grabbing third in the Sussex National last Sunday, and this looks a great opportunity for Dylanseoghan to get off the mark. 2nd last time out over a slightly shorter trip, he's won a point over 3 miles and it might that bit further that ekes out the extra little bit of improvement necessary to take this.

Frankie Ballou @ 9/1 (win) BOG
3B • Sedgefield 14:10 • 12th Jan '18

A very modest handicap chase where hopefully for us it doesn't bode ill that the sponsor saddles Instant Replay, currently near the top of the market. None of these however have recent winning form and the selection admittedly is still a maiden; he was however second to a runaway winner last time out at Catterick. Dropped a further 2lb for that run he must enter calculations should he go as well again, place chance at the very least.

Frankie Ballou (place) BOG
3B • Sedgefield 14:10 • 12th Jan '18
Lad Of Luck @ 4/1 (win)
NAP • Huntingdon 14:00 • 12th Jan '18

This half-brother to the very smart Let's Dance (Cheltenham festival winner etc) has been handed what could be a difficult target for his first start over hurdles (hacked up on bumper debut but off since February), but his main opponents while still unexposed do have questions to answer. Turtle Wars was poor last time out, while Maire Banrigh cost a staggering £320,000 and failed to start to repay that when evens on debut. Arian could be open to be most improvement but provided Lad of Luck can jump as remotely as well as his half-sister then under the claiming son of the trainer (won very nicely for me today on The New Pharaoh) he should be able to take this.

Itstimeforapint @ 12/1 (win) BOG
NB • Catterick 14:35 • 11th Jan '18

Has been out of form the last twice but it distinctly looks as though Itstimeforapint has been aimed at this race, having finished 3rd last year. He's back down to that same mark and those at the top of the market have questions to answers over whether they can stay this marathon trip.

Itstimeforapint (place) BOG
NB • Catterick 14:35 • 11th Jan '18
£55.00 The New Pharaoh @ 11/1 (win)
3B • Leicester 14:20 • 11th Jan '18

An intriguing novice hurdle where plenty have chances but I like the look of the New Pharaoh at a decent price. Decent on the flat, his last two races including the hurdle debut have been in "hands and heels" races. Back down in trip and in the hands of a decent young claimer he has at the least place possibilities.

£11.00 The New Pharaoh (place)
3B • Leicester 14:20 • 11th Jan '18
Ballydine @ 11/4 (win)
NAP • Leicester 13:45 • 11th Jan '18

A very competitive little heat for only a 4-runner race but Ballydine still looks the one to be on. Dropped 3lb for a neck second last time out in a Class 2 Novice on heavy at Haydock, he's ahead on the weights here with Acting Lass while there are question marks over Cultivator and Ballyarthur.

Misty Mai @ 7/1 (win)
NB • Ludlow 15:35 • 10th Jan '18

The temptation is there at the moment to back James Bowen's mounts blindly, something I refused to do yesterday and was burnt for when Kohuma went in, although I was right to drop Relentless Dreamer who won for me last time. The bigger question mark here is whether Misty Mai will bring her improved form over fences back to hurdles, where she has failed to win since her maiden, but with the exception of Tara Well none of the others inspire confidence either.

Misty Mai (place)
NB • Ludlow 15:35 • 10th Jan '18
£40.00 Tb Broke Her @ 4/1 (win) BOG
NAP • Ludlow 15:00 • 10th Jan '18

I've been loyal to Goohar since his win at Towcester but he seems to have become frustrating and even among this company his mark doesn't allow him much scope for error. Grove Silver has won off higher and it could be he's coming back into form but there's hardly an guarantees. The same could be said about Tb Broke Her, but her last two performances suggest that the switch from Ireland to the UK has done her the world of good. She's up 7lb for her win last time out but that still gives her a substantial weight advantage and hopefully she can follow up.

Gamain @ 14/1 (win)
3B • Ludlow 14:25 • 10th Jan '18

This could prove to be a facile race as Flashjack is unpenalised for his win last time out and providing that race didn't take it out of him he could easily go in again. 14/1 though seems a huge price for a horse as consistent as Gamain. He's back over hurdles having been chasing the last twice and while his mark looks a touch high he'll appreciate the drop back in trip to near his optimum, looks a solid e/w bet.

£17.50 Gamain (place)
3B • Ludlow 14:25 • 10th Jan '18
General Mahler @ 7/2 (win) BOG
NAP • Doncaster 15:10 • 9th Jan '18

This has the potential to be a tough little race, but General Mahler still looks the one to be on. Upped 3lb for his neck second on Boxing Day, but this is a drop back in grade and the slight upping in trip should be very much in his favour. Crystal Lad runs off a career low mark but still has to concede weight, while Doktor Glaz would need to improve further still to take this.

Song Saa @ 9/2 (win)
NB • Doncaster 14:00 • 9th Jan '18

With Casablanca Mix taken out of the equation, this looks the perfect opportunity for Song Saa to get her head in front again having run so consistently over fences over the past year. Rene's Girl's performance last time out might have been a blip down in trip and behind two useful sorts, but Song Saa has shown her form on a variety of surfaces and looks far better potential value.

Boutan @ 11/1 (win) BOG
3B • Taunton 12:35 • 9th Jan '18

Better over the flat than hurdles, albeit at a low grade, something looked as though it might have clicked last time out when making the frame for the first time since her 2nd in a maiden. Mikey Hamill takes the ride today and takes a further 5lb off an already basement mark, should at the least hit the frame again.

Boutan (place) BOG
3B • Taunton 12:35 • 9th Jan '18
Tikken Away @ 5/1 (win) BOG
NAP • Fontwell 14:45 • 8th Jan '18
Big Picture @ 11/2 (win)
3B • Fontwell 13:45 • 8th Jan '18

Hasn't shown much yet but this is an extremely weak affair and dropped 4lb may well do better.

Big Picture (place)
3B • Fontwell 13:45 • 8th Jan '18
Tierra Verde @ 5/1 (win)
NB • Fontwell 13:15 • 8th Jan '18
Golden Flowerpower @ 18/1 (win)
NAP • Naas 14:50 • 7th Jan '18
£22.50 Golden Flowerpower (place)
NAP • Naas 14:50 • 7th Jan '18
Frank N Fair @ 11/1 (win) BOG
NB • Plumpton 14:35 • 7th Jan '18

Has won here the last twice, and so effectively is up 14lb from out of the weights, but as that hasn't stopped him on the last two occasions either there's every chance it won't this time. Up in trip which is a slight question mark, but it's equally hard to enthuse about the opposition.

£13.75 Frank N Fair (place) BOG
NB • Plumpton 14:35 • 7th Jan '18
Flemenskill @ 12/1 (win) BOG
3B • Plumpton 13:35 • 7th Jan '18

Showed little last time out on hurdle debut, but with the champion jockey booked and a hood reached for, a small e/w in this weak affair is worth a pop.

Flemenskill (place) BOG
3B • Plumpton 13:35 • 7th Jan '18
Play The Ace @ 3/1 (win)
NAP • Chepstow 15:20 • 6th Jan '18

Kayf Adventure is likely to go to Wincanton instead so there may well be a R4 (presuming of course this entire meeting goes ahead as Play The Ace also has an entry there), but regardless this couldn't be a better chance for the selection to complete a remarkable 5-timer. Claimer son James Bowen is back in the saddle after he was ridden by older brother Sean the last twice and will surely give it his all.

£80.00 Raz De Maree @ 16/1 (win)
NB • Chepstow 14:05 • 6th Jan '18

Has left his previous poor form well behind the last two starts, was 2nd in this last year off just a 1lb and with super claimer James Bowen in the saddle has a very live chance.

£20.00 Raz De Maree (place)
NB • Chepstow 14:05 • 6th Jan '18
Echo Watt @ 11/1 (win)
3B • Sandown 12:15 • 6th Jan '18

Complexion of this race is likely to change massively if as expected Chepstow goes ahead as We Have A Dream is likely to go there instead. If he's here there's little doubt he hacks up, if not then we have a huge R4. I somehow managed to pick out Echo Watt for the blog last time at the bumper in Ffos Las where there was nothing to go on, and feel obliged to back him in this. Crucial Moment has the hurdles form and Mister Chow probably makes a little more appeal on flat form, but so long as he takes to hurdling as he did to the heavy ground in Wales (and connections are wasting no time), Echo Watt clearly has a chance here.


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Records shown after 100 tips have been settled

Tip Record
Tips P/L
Ludlow 12 195.00
Plumpton 12 93.25
Lingfield 10 10.00
Newbury 13 -25.90
Blog Record
Tips P/L
Haydock 40 275.40
Plumpton 37 271.70
Doncaster 50 229.42
Ffos Las 19 221.25
Punchestown 63 208.65
Leopardstown 43 200.05
Catterick 40 165.30
Ascot 37 152.90
Fairyhouse 52 143.20
Ludlow 64 139.10


tips placed
win strike rate
Overall ROI
12 Month ROI
6 Month ROI
3 Month ROI
Best day
Best blogging day

Strike Rate

Average odds: 5.14
P/L: £440.05

NB Win
Strike Rate

Average odds: 7.3
P/L: £-12.75

3B Win
Strike Rate

Average odds: 10.58
P/L: £101.10

Blog Win
Strike Rate

Average odds: 8.13
P/L: 145.539 points
Month Tips P/L
January 2018 48 162.30
December 2017 80 259.95
November 2017 54 106.15
Month Tips P/L
January 2018 216 22.46
December 2017 557 140.68
November 2017 272 -17.60
Times as top tipster
Times as in top 5
Times in top 10