Are you really the best if you’ve the biggest profit figure?

January 19th '17 Coley1981xxx

Are you really the best if you’ve the biggest profit figure?

First I’d like to take this opportunity to thank the guys at Betref for their tireless work. I think all those who use the site on a regular basis will agree that the work they do and the professional way in which they go about it is a testament to them.

I’ve been using the site for a while and the site has had its issue and problems, but they’ve always been happy to help and ALWAYS looking to improve the product they offer.

At times it’s hard to believe they’re able to offer this service to anyone and everyone completely free. Had it not been for their site and help over the years I wouldn’t be in the position I am now.

That’s quite enough of that..

So… the question remains, who is the best? Or more to the point, who should you be following?

It’s a tricky question and one that’s been discussed and looked at for quite some time. Obviously the ‘Hall of fame’ had to be put in to an order, but is overall profit really the best judge of a ‘tipter’

I took the top 100 based on the standard top P/L and wanted to see what happens to it if you base it on different numbers.

After removing any user that doesn’t meet all the criteria for 6, 12 month ROI or P/L as its fair to assume that if they’ve not meet that, then there’s no point in including them.

Once you take those out the figures start to look a little clearer.

You would assume that if you have the best P/L then you are the best on site. Fair point. Although you could argue that if you tipped 1500 times you could and should show a decent P/L, but wouldn’t automatically be the best if you look at the ROI. Fair?

You could also argue that tipping 1500 times, but still showing a double digit ROI is not easy to maintain, so ROI should be taken in to account. But the less tips placed your ROI by nature will be higher even if your only half decent.

6 month ROI I would agree is a better way of looking at it, as this keeps things current and I’m the first to admit that a year ago I was doing a lot better than I did 6 months ago. So my early ‘form’ is holding up my current. Issue with 6 month form is it’s unfair on those ‘lifers’ if you want to call them that, who have been doing it for a while.

I don’t think writing off any figures older than 6 months is fair and some credit should be given for it.

If the table had how many tips in 6 months that would help. Worth adding in my opinion as ROI figures alone still don’t give you a full picture.

One stat that to my mind is hugely over looked is Strike rate. This is without doubt the hardest start to maintain long term and its nothing to do with price, so cannot be skewed but rule 4’s (Fucking rule 4s.) I know many bring this point up, which is fair I’ll admit. But just how many races are effected by the rule? Yes the figures are not 100% accurate pre rule 4 but even if you allow for say 5% (which in my opinion is way too much) would still be worth keeping those figures in.

Strike rate directly relates to a user’s ability to pick winners. To my mind and is what drives what I do, the main aim here. Regardless of price a strike rate of over 20% (dependant on odds obviously) for users who’ve tipped more than 500 times should be commended. I know people out there who have a much lower strike rate but tip horses at double digit prices who do ok. The only issues I have with that is, those who follow must follow EVERY horse. If you miss one winner then you may as well give up.

That’s not to say those that do this are wrong, it’s just a different way to go about it.

You could argue that if someone’s looking for a tipster then strike rate should be without doubt the first and most important stat?

Obviously strike rate isn’t connected to price and you could argue that someone could tip odds on horses every time, but as we know too many lose, so would be folly.

If you want my advice (most don’t) these are what you should be looking for:

  • A strike rate over 20%
  • A return on investment greater than 10% over the past 6 months
  • Overall profit greater than 500
  • Tipped more than 500 times
  • Overall Return on investment of 15%

I would say that if you meet at least 3 of these then you know a good horse when you see one.

Profit alone means nothing….